Christmas shortages loom as shipments fall 19%

Port landings of holiday-themed products take a nosedive in October, putting potential upward pressure on prices

What you’ll learn in this article:

• How tariff-driven shortages are coming to U.S. stores this holiday season.
• Which holiday products are seeing the most significant import shifts.
• How to protect your business from tariff and trade volatility. 

🎯 Best for: Product specialists, supply chain strategists, VPs of global operations.

American consumers can expect a dose of scarcity to temper their holiday cheer this year: imports of Christmas goods into U.S. ports have plunged 19% year-over-year, signaling tighter shelves and higher prices ahead.

According to data compiled by ImportGenius, shipments of Christmas and holiday-themed items reached 48,377 TEUs in September 2025, compared with 59,437 TEUs for the same month last year, a year-over-year decline of 19%. 

It is the second-lowest September total in the last five years, surpassing only 2023’s September shipments. September is typically the month when holiday shipments peak at U.S. seaports, giving retailers the time they need to distribute the items — such as artificial trees, ornaments, giftwrap and nativity scenes — and stock store shelves.

“Tariffs have created a double whammy for U.S. businesses and consumers this holiday season,” says ImportGenius CEO Michael Kanko. “This year’s high and ever-changing tariff rates have led to higher prices, and to some retailers curtailing their orders as a result. Now, with some products in short supply, there’s upward price pressure on the goods that are available.” 

Oh, Christmas trees: Tariffs on China drive import declines

As The Manifest reported back in May, the U.S. is heavily reliant upon Chinese imports for many holiday staples, particularly artificial Christmas trees: 88% of plastic tree imports, and 96% of non-plastic artificial tree imports, come from China. 

For New Jersey-based National Tree Company, one of the country’s largest importers of holiday goods, trade uncertainty has resulted in a dramatic drop in imports. After importing well over 1,000 TEUs of goods every September from 2022 to 2024, ImportGenius data shows that the company’s September imports fell to less than 500 TEUs for this year. 

Speaking with CNBC last month, National Tree Company CEO Chris Butler advised consumers not to wait until Black Friday to buy their holiday goods. “We are definitely going to see a short supply this year,” Butler told CNBC’s LoriAnn LaRocco, advising consumers to “definitely act now and get ahead of the curve.”

Toy and game imports down 10%

Meanwhile, the things that typically go beneath Christmas trees are another casualty of tariff uncertainty. Imports of toys and games are down 10% in October 2025 compared to the same month in 2024, dropping by more 8,000 TEUs. Last month’s total of 74,785 TEUs is the lowest September peak for toy imports in the last five years. 

While toys and games are sold year-round, imports peak annually in September and October of every year in anticipation of increased holiday sales. The decline is yet another indication that tariffs and trade uncertainty will have an adverse impact on this holiday season. 

Temporary trade blip, or major global disruption?  

These volatile shifts in normal trade patterns raise a crucial question as we approach the end of the year: will 2025 prove to be just a temporary one-year anomaly, or is it the beginning of a larger realignment in global trade routes and relationships? The question applies not only to holiday goods but to furniture, automobiles and more. 

“It’s definitely been a year of turmoil for any company that relies on international trade,” says Kanko. “Some companies can withstand the rough seas. For others, it can be sink or swim.” 

The difference, he says, comes down to how well they know their market — and the data they have at their disposal. “The trends we’re seeing right now were emerging in our data months ago,” Kanko says. “If you have the tools to track your market and your competitors, you can see when a situation is headed for trouble, and you can set your company on a better course.”

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