Global Trade Outlook 2026

‍The rules of global trade are being rewritten on the fly, creating new risks — and new opportunities — along the way. This new report from ImportGenius draws fresh intelligence from our industry-leading trade database, and combines it with the knowledge of our research, client and technology teams, to bring you the insight you need to get ahead of the curve in 2026.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz shows how fundamental energy security and feedstock diversification are to sovereignty in a multipolar world. The strait’s closure played very differently in three of Asia’s key economies. China’s enormous reserves insulated the chokepoint shock, as Japan depends more on US energy. Vietnam, dependent on Gulf ethylene, naphtha, and crude oil to supply both the US and China, may now turn to Chinese renewables and EVs.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered a global scramble for energy, with Southeast Asia among the first regions affected. No country in the region is more reliant on Gulf-originating crude and liquid fuels than the Philippines. Emergency sourcing prevented shortages, but this dependency caused severe social and economic disruption nationwide.